Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
Enter your average winner size relative to your average loser (reward ÷ risk). The calculator shows the break-even win rate and how much edge you have if your actual win rate is higher.
Key takeaway: At 1:2 risk-reward you only need a 33.3% win rate to break even. At 1:1 you need 50%. Use this to sanity-check whether your strategy's historical win rate supports your targets.
Calculator
Break-even win rate % = 1 ÷ (1 + reward multiple) × 100. With optional actual win rate, edge = actual − break-even (positive means profitable before costs).
Results
- Break-even win rate
- 33.3%
- At 1:2.0 R:R
- Need 33.3% wins
- Your edge vs break-even
- +11.7%
How this formula works
Break-even win rate % = 1 ÷ (1 + reward multiple) × 100. With optional actual win rate, edge = actual − break-even (positive means profitable before costs).
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FAQ
- Why is my win rate high but I still lose money?
- Usually average losers exceed average winners (poor risk-reward). A 70% win rate with 1:0.3 R:R loses money. Check break-even win rate against your real R-multiple distribution in a journal.
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